Field assessment of BinaxNOW antigen tests as COVID-19 treatment entry point at a community testing site in San Francisco during evolving omicron surges (preprint)

ABSTRACT Background COVID-19 oral treatments require initiation within 5 days of symptom onset. Although antigen tests are less sensitive than RT-PCR, rapid results could facilitate entry to treatment. As SARS-CoV-2 variants and host immunity evolve, it is important to characterize the use case for rapid antigen tests for treatment entry. Methods We collected anterior nasal swabs for BinaxNOW and RT-PCR testing and clinical data at a walk-up, community site in San Francisco, California between January and June 2022. SARS-CoV-2 genomic sequences were generated from positive samples and classified according to subtype and variant. Monte Carlo simulations were conducted to estimate the expected proportion of SARS-CoV-2 infected persons who would have been diagnosed within 5 days of symptom onset using RT-PCR versus BinaxNOW testing. Results Among 25,309 persons tested with BinaxNOW, 2,952 had concomitant RT-PCR. 1321/2952 (44.7%) were SARS-CoV-2 RT-PCR positive. We identified waves of predominant omicron BA.1, BA.2, BA.2.12, BA.4, and BA.5 among 720 sequenced samples. Among 1,321 RT-PCR positive samples, 938/1321 (71%) were detected by BinaxNOW; 95% (774/817) of those with Ct value <30 were detected by BinaxNOW. BinaxNOW detection was consistent over lineages. In analyses to evaluate entry to treatment, BinaxNOW detected 82.7% (410/496, 95% CI: 79-86%) of persons with COVID-19 within 5 days of symptom onset. In comparison, RT-PCR (24-hour turnaround) detected 83.1% (412/496 95% CI: 79-86%) and RT-PCR (48-hour turnaround) detected 66.3% (329/496 95% CI: 62-70%) of persons with COVID-19 within 5 days of symptom onset. Conclusions BinaxNOW detected high viral load from anterior nasal swabs consistently across omicron sublineages emerging between January and June of 2022. Simulations support BinaxNOW as an entry point for COVID-19 treatment in a community field setting.

COVID-19 symptoms and duration of direct antigen test positivity at a community testing and surveillance site, January 2021-2022 (preprint)

Importance: Characterizing clinical symptoms and evolution of community- based SARS Co-V-2 infections can inform health practitioners and public health officials in a rapidly changing landscape of population immunity and viral variants. Objective: To characterize COVID-19 symptoms during the Omicron period compared to pre-Delta and Delta variant periods and assess the duration of COVID-19 BinaxNOW rapid antigen test positivity during the Omicron variant surge. Design, Setting, and Participants: This public health surveillance study was undertaken between January 2021- January 2022, at a walk-up community COVID-19 testing site in San Francisco, California. Testing with BinaxNOW rapid antigen tests was available regardless of age, vaccine status, or symptoms throughout. Main Outcomes and Measures: We characterized the prevalence of specific symptoms for people with a positive BinaxNOW test during the Omicron period and compared it to the pre-Delta and Delta periods. During the Omicron period, we examined differences in symptoms by age and vaccine status. Among people returning for repeat testing during Omicron period, we estimated the proportion with a positive BinaxNOW antigen test between 4-14 days from symptom onset or since first positive test if asymptomatic. Results: Of 63,277 persons tested, 18,301 (30%) reported symptoms and 4,568 (25%) tested positive for COVID-19. During the Omicron period, 41.6% (3032/7283) of symptomatic testers tested positive, and the proportion reporting cough (67.4%) and sore throat (43.4%) was higher than during Delta and pre-Delta periods. Congestion was higher during Omicron (38.8%) than during the pre-Delta period and loss of taste/smell (5.3%) and fever (30.4%) were less common. Fevers and myalgias were less common among persons who had received boosters compared to unvaccinated people or those who received the primary series. Five days after symptom onset, 31.1% of people with COVID-19 stated their symptoms were similar or worsening. An estimated 80.2% of symptomatic re-testers remained positive five days after symptom onset and 60.5% after ten days. Conclusions and Relevance: COVID-19 upper respiratory tract symptoms were more commonly reported during the Omicron period compared to pre-Delta and Delta periods, with differences by vaccination status. Antigen test positivity remained high after 5 days, supporting guidelines requiring a negative test to shorten the isolation period.

A 2-Gene Host Signature for Improved Accuracy of COVID-19 Diagnosis Agnostic to Viral Variants (preprint)

The continued emergence of SARS-CoV-2 variants is one of several factors that may cause false negative viral PCR test results. Such tests are also susceptible to false positive results due to trace contamination from high viral titer samples. Host immune response markers provide an orthogonal indication of infection that can mitigate these concerns when combined with direct viral detection. Here, we leverage nasopharyngeal swab RNA-seq data from patients with COVID-19, other viral acute respiratory illnesses and non-viral conditions (n=318) to develop support vector machine classifiers that rely on a parsimonious 2-gene host signature to predict COVID-19. Optimal classifiers achieve an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) greater than 0.9 when evaluated on an independent RNA-seq cohort (n=553). We show that a classifier relying on a single interferon-stimulated gene, such as IFI6 or IFI44, measured in RT-qPCR assays (n=144) achieves AUC values as high as 0.88. Addition of a second gene, such as GBP5, significantly improves the specificity compared to other respiratory viruses. The performance of a clinically practical 2-gene RT-qPCR classifier is robust across common SARS-CoV-2 variants, including Omicron, and is unaffected by cross-contamination, demonstrating its utility for improving accuracy of COVID-19 diagnostics.

Direct Comparison of SARS Co-V-2 Nasal RT- PCR and Rapid Antigen Test (BinaxNOWTM) at a Community Testing Site During an Omicron Surge (preprint)

In 731 persons seeking COVID-19 testing at a walk-up San Francisco community site in January 2022, simultaneous nasal rapid antigen testing (BinaxNOWTM) and RT-PCR testing was performed. There were 296 (40.5%) positive tests by RT-PCR; 97% of a random sample were the omicron variant. Sensitivity of a single antigen test was 95.2% (95% CI 92-98%); 82.1% (95% CI 77-87%) and 65.2% (95% CI 60-70%) for Ct threshold of < 30, < 35 and no threshold, respectively. A single BinaxNowTM rapid antigen test detected 95% of high viral load omicron cases from nasal specimens. As currently recommended, repeat testing should be done for high- risk persons with an initial negative antigen test result.

A 2-Gene Host Signature for Improved Accuracy of COVID-19 Diagnosis Agnostic to Viral Variants (preprint)

The continued emergence of SARS-CoV-2 variants is one of several factors that may cause false negative viral PCR test results. Such tests are also susceptible to false positive results due to trace contamination from high viral titer samples. Host immune response markers provide an orthogonal indication of infection that can mitigate these concerns when combined with direct viral detection. Here, we leverage nasopharyngeal swab RNA-seq data from patients with COVID-19, other viral acute respiratory illnesses and non-viral conditions (n=318) to develop support vector machine classifiers that rely on a parsimonious 2-gene host signature to predict COVID-19. Optimal classifiers achieve an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) greater than 0.9 when evaluated on an independent RNA-seq cohort (n=553). We show that a classifier relying on a single interferon-stimulated gene, such as IFI6 or IFI44, measured in RT-qPCR assays (n=144) achieves AUC values as high as 0.88. Addition of a second gene, such as GBP5, significantly improves the specificity compared to other respiratory viruses. The performance of a clinically practical 2-gene RT-qPCR classifier is robust across common SARS-CoV-2 variants, including Omicron, and is unaffected by cross-contamination, demonstrating its utility for improving accuracy of COVID-19 diagnostics.

Impact of Multi-Component Support Strategies on HIV Virologic Suppression Rates During Covid-19: An Interrupted Time Series Analysis (preprint)

Background: After COVID-19 shelter-in-place (SIP) orders, viral suppression (VS) rates initially decreased within a safety-net HIV clinic in San Francisco, with greater decreases among people living with HIV (PLWH) experiencing homelessness. We sought to understand if (1) proactive outreach to provide social services, (2) scaling up of in-person visits, and (3) expansion of housing programs could reverse this decline.Methods: We assessed VS 24 months before and 13 months after SIP using mixed-effects logistic regression, followed by interrupted time series (ITS) analysis to examine changes in the rate of viral suppression per month. Loss to follow-up was assessed via active clinic tracing.Findings: Data from 1,816 patients were included in the analysis, with a median age of 51 years, 12% female, 14% experiencing unstable housing/homelessness. After an initial decline with the shelter-in-place order, the adjusted odds of VS increased 1.34-fold over 13 months following institution of the the multi-component strategies (95% confidence interval (CI): 1.21-1.46). In the interrupted time series analysis, the odds of VS continuously increased 1.05-fold per month over the post-intervention period (95% CI: 1.01-1.08). Among PLWH previously experiencing homelessness who were permanently housed or placed in shelter-in-place hotels, the odds of VS were 1.94-fold higher (95% CI:1.05-3.59). The one-year loss to follow-up rate was 2.8 per person-year (95% CI: 2.2-3.5).Interpretation: After an initial destabilization in VS in a large safety-net clinic following SIP orders, the VS rate increased following scale-up of in-person visits, clinic outreach to patients, intensification of social services, and access to COVID-related housing programs during this time. The loss to follow-up rate was similar or lower compared to prior years. Maintaining in-person care for underserved patients, with flexible telemedicine options, along with provision of social services and permanent expansion of housing assistance programs, will be needed to support VS among underserved populations during the COVID-19 pandemic.Funding Information: This work was funded by NIH/NIAID R01AI158013 (M.A.S. M.G. K.A.C, M.O.J), NIH/NIAID R24AI067039 (K.A,C.), and NIH/NIAID P30AI027763 (M.G.)Declaration of Interests: MAS, DVG, MOJ, DH, KAC, SPB and MG report funding from the NIH during conduct of the study. KAC reports investigator-initiated grant support from Gilead Sciences and personal fees from Gilead Sciences outside the submitted work. DVG reports personal fees from Gilead Sciences outside the submitted work. All other authors have nothing to declare. Ethics Approval Statement: This study was approved by the UCSF IRB, and informed consent was not required given processes occurred as part of routine care/quality improvement.

No Significant Difference in Viral Load Between Vaccinated and Unvaccinated, Asymptomatic and Symptomatic Groups Infected with SARS-CoV-2 Delta Variant (preprint)

We found no significant difference in cycle threshold values between vaccinated and unvaccinated, asymptomatic and symptomatic groups infected with SARS-CoV-2 Delta. Given the substantial proportion of asymptomatic vaccine breakthrough cases with high viral levels, interventions, including masking and testing, should be considered for all in settings with elevated COVID-19 transmission.

Exposures to different SARS-CoV-2 spike variants elicit neutralizing antibody responses with differential specificity towards established and emerging strains (preprint)

The wide spectrum of SARS-CoV-2 variants with phenotypes impacting transmission and antibody sensitivity necessitates investigation of the immune response to different spike protein versions. Here, we compare the neutralization of variants of concern, including B.1.617.2 (Delta) in sera from individuals exposed to variant infection, vaccination, or both. We demonstrate that neutralizing antibody responses are strongest against variants sharing one or more spike mutations with the immunizing exposure. We also observe that exposure to multiple spike variants increases the breadth of variant cross-neutralization. These findings contribute to understanding the relationship between exposures and antibody responses and may inform booster vaccination strategies.

High parental vaccine motivation at a neighborhood-based vaccine and testing site serving a predominantly Latinx community (preprint)

Purpose. To understand vaccine attitudes of Latinx parents highly impacted by COVID-19. Methods. In April 2021, we surveyed parents about their attitudes for COVID-19 vaccination of their children at a community-based outdoor testing/vaccination site serving predominantly low-income, Latinx persons in San Francisco. Results. Among 1,033 parents (75% Latinx), 92% would 'definitely' or 'probably' vaccinate their children. Vaccine hesitancy was higher for younger children; concerns included side effects and impacts on fertility. Doctors and community organizations were noted as trusted sources of information, including among vaccine-hesitant parents. Conclusion. Latinx parents accessing neighborhood-based COVID-19 testing/vaccination services are highly motivated to vaccinate their children for COVID-19.

Estimation of secondary household attack rates for emergent SARS-CoV-2 variants detected by genomic surveillance at a community-based testing site in San Francisco (preprint)

BackgroundSequencing of the SARS-CoV-2 viral genome from patient samples is an important epidemiological tool for monitoring and responding to the pandemic, including the emergence of new mutations in specific communities. MethodsSARS-CoV-2 genomic sequences were generated from positive samples collected, along with epidemiological metadata, at a walk-up, rapid testing site in the Mission District of San Francisco, California during November 22-December 2, 2020 and January 10-29, 2021. Secondary household attack rates and mean sample viral load were estimated and compared across observed variants. ResultsA total of 12,124 tests were performed yielding 1,099 positives. From these, 811 high quality genomes were generated. Certain viral lineages bearing spike mutations, defined in part by L452R, S13I, and W152C, comprised 54.9% of the total sequences from January, compared to 15.7% in November. Household contacts exposed to "West Coast" variants were at higher risk of infection compared to household contacts exposed to lineages lacking these variants (0.357 vs 0.294, RR=1.29; 95% CI:1.01-1.64). The reproductive number was estimated to be modestly higher than other lineages spreading in California during the second half of 2020. Viral loads were similar among persons infected with West Coast versus non-West Coast strains, as was the proportion of individuals with symptoms (60.9% vs 64.1%). ConclusionsThe increase in prevalence, relative household attack rates, and reproductive number are consistent with a modest transmissibility increase of the West Coast variants; however, additional laboratory and epidemiological studies are required to better understand differences between these variants. SummaryWe observed a growing prevalence and elevated attack rate for "West Coast" SARS-CoV-2 variants in a community testing setting in San Francisco during January 2021, suggesting its modestly higher transmissibility.

Routine Asymptomatic Testing Strategies for Airline Travel During the COVID-19 Pandemic: A Simulation Analysis (preprint)

Background: Airline travel has been significantly reduced during the COVID-19 pandemic due to concern for individual risk of SARS-CoV-2 infection and population-level transmission risk from importation. Routine viral testing strategies for COVID-19 may facilitate safe airline travel through reduction of individual and/or population-level risk, although the effectiveness and optimal design of these “test-and-travel” strategies remain unclear.Methods: We developed a microsimulation of SARS-CoV-2 transmission in a cohort of airline travelers to evaluate the effectiveness of various testing strategies to reduce individual risk of infection and population-level risk of transmission. We evaluated five testing strategies in asymptomatic passengers: i) anterior nasal polymerase chain reaction (PCR) within 3 days of departure; ii) PCR within 3 days of departure and PCR 5 days after arrival; iii) rapid antigen test on the day of travel (assuming 90% of the sensitivity of PCR during active infection); iv) rapid antigen test on the day of travel and PCR 5 days after arrival; and v) PCR within 3 days of arrival alone. The travel period was defined as three days prior to the day of travel and two weeks following the day of travel, and we assumed passengers followed guidance on mask wearing during this period. The primary study outcome was cumulative number of infectious days in the cohort over the travel period (population-level transmission risk); the secondary outcome was the proportion of infectious persons detected on the day of travel (individual-level risk of infection). Sensitivity analyses were conducted.Findings: Assuming a community SARS-CoV-2 incidence of 50 daily infections, we estimated that in a cohort of 100,000 airline travelers followed over the travel period, there would be a total of 2,796 (95% UI: 2,031, 4,336) infectious days with 229 (95% UI: 170, 336) actively infectious passengers on the day of travel. The pre-travel PCR test (within 3 days prior to departure) reduced the number of infectious days by 35% (95% UI: 27, 42) and identified 88% (95% UI: 76, 94) of the actively infectious travelers on the day of flight; the addition of PCR 5 days after arrival reduced the number of infectious days by 79% (95% UI: 71, 84). The rapid antigen test on the day of travel reduced the number of infectious days by 32% (95% UI: 25, 39) and identified 87% (95% UI: 81, 92) of the actively infectious travelers; the addition of PCR 5 days after arrival reduced the number of infectious days by 70% (95% UI: 65, 75). The post-travel PCR test alone (within 3 days of landing) reduced the number of infectious days by 42% (95% UI: 31, 51). The ratio of true positives to false positives varied with the incidence of infection. The overall study conclusions were robust in sensitivity analysis.Interpretation: Routine asymptomatic testing for COVID-19 prior to travel can be an effective strategy to reduce individual risk of COVID-19 infection during travel, although post-travel testing with abbreviated quarantine is likely needed to reduce population-level transmission due to importation of infection when traveling from a high to low incidence setting.Funding: NCL is supported by the University of California, San Francisco (Department of Medicine). MVK is supported in part by the National Institute on Drug Abuse of the National Institutes of Health (K99DA051534).Conflict of Interest: NCL has received grants and personal fees from the World Health Organization and the California Department of Public Health unrelated to the current study. GWR has received funding from the San Francisco Department of Public Health and the California Department of Public Health for COVID-19-related work unrelated to the current study.

Routine asymptomatic testing strategies for airline travel during the COVID-19 pandemic: a simulation analysis (preprint)

BackgroundAirline travel has been significantly reduced during the COVID-19 pandemic due to concern for individual risk of SARS-CoV-2 infection and population-level transmission risk from importation. Routine viral testing strategies for COVID-19 may facilitate safe airline travel through reduction of individual and/or population-level risk, although the effectiveness and optimal design of these "test-and-travel" strategies remain unclear. MethodsWe developed a microsimulation of SARS-CoV-2 transmission in a cohort of airline travelers to evaluate the effectiveness of various testing strategies to reduce individual risk of infection and population-level risk of transmission. We evaluated five testing strategies in asymptomatic passengers: i) anterior nasal polymerase chain reaction (PCR) within 3 days of departure; ii) PCR within 3 days of departure and PCR 5 days after arrival; iii) rapid antigen test on the day of travel (assuming 90% of the sensitivity of PCR during active infection); iv) rapid antigen test on the day of travel and PCR 5 days after arrival; and v) PCR within 3 days of arrival alone. The travel period was defined as three days prior to the day of travel and two weeks following the day of travel, and we assumed passengers followed guidance on mask wearing during this period. The primary study outcome was cumulative number of infectious days in the cohort over the travel period (population-level transmission risk); the secondary outcome was the proportion of infectious persons detected on the day of travel (individual-level risk of infection). Sensitivity analyses were conducted. FindingsAssuming a community SARS-CoV-2 incidence of 50 daily infections, we estimated that in a cohort of 100,000 airline travelers followed over the travel period, there would be a total of 2,796 (95% UI: 2,031, 4,336) infectious days with 229 (95% UI: 170, 336) actively infectious passengers on the day of travel. The pre-travel PCR test (within 3 days prior to departure) reduced the number of infectious days by 35% (95% UI: 27, 42) and identified 88% (95% UI: 76, 94) of the actively infectious travelers on the day of flight; the addition of PCR 5 days after arrival reduced the number of infectious days by 79% (95% UI: 71, 84). The rapid antigen test on the day of travel reduced the number of infectious days by 32% (95% UI: 25, 39) and identified 87% (95% UI: 81, 92) of the actively infectious travelers; the addition of PCR 5 days after arrival reduced the number of infectious days by 70% (95% UI: 65, 75). The post-travel PCR test alone (within 3 days of landing) reduced the number of infectious days by 42% (95% UI: 31, 51). The ratio of true positives to false positives varied with the incidence of infection. The overall study conclusions were robust in sensitivity analysis. InterpretationRoutine asymptomatic testing for COVID-19 prior to travel can be an effective strategy to reduce individual risk of COVID-19 infection during travel, although post-travel testing with abbreviated quarantine is likely needed to reduce population-level transmission due to importation of infection when traveling from a high to low incidence setting.

Universal PCR and antibody testing demonstrate little to no transmission of SARS-CoV-2 in a rural community (preprint)

BackgroundThe absence of systematic surveillance for SARS-CoV-2 has curtailed accurate appraisal of transmission intensity. Our objective was to perform case detection of an entire rural community to quantify SARS-CoV-2 transmission using PCR and antibody testing. MethodsWe conducted a cross-sectional survey of the prevalence and cumulative incidence of SARSCoV-2 infection in the rural town of Bolinas, California (population 1,620), four weeks following shelter-in-place orders. Residents and county essential workers were tested between April 20th - 24th, 2020. Prevalence by PCR and seroprevalence combining data from two forms of antibody testing were performed in parallel (Abbott ARCHITECT IgG to nucleocapsid protein and in-house IgG ELISA to the receptor binding domain). ResultsOf 1,891 participants, 1,312 were confirmed Bolinas residents (>80% community ascertainment). Zero participants were PCR positive. Assuming 80% sensitivity, it would have been unlikely to observe these results (p< 0.05) if there were > 3 active infections in the community. Based on antibody results, estimated prevalence of prior infection was 0.16% (95% CrI: 0.02%, 0.46%). Seroprevalence estimates using only one of the two tests would have been higher, with greater uncertainty. The positive predictive value (PPV) of a positive result on both tests was 99.11% (95% CrI: 95.75%, 99.94%), compared to PPV 44.19%-63.32% (95% CrI range 3.25%-98.64%) if only one test was utilized. ConclusionsFour weeks following shelter-in-place, active and prior SARS-CoV-2 infection in a rural Northern California community was extremely rare. In this low prevalence setting, use of two antibody tests increased the PPV and precision of seroprevalence estimates.

SARS-CoV-2 PCR and antibody testing for an entire rural community: methods and feasibility of high-throughput testing procedures (preprint)

High-volume, community-wide ascertainment of SARS-CoV-2 prevalence by PCR and antibody testing was successfully performed using a community-led, drive-through model with strong operational support, well-trained testing units, and an effective technical platform.